Striking-Retrospectivity
0x4ab62355a650a53bb1a363ec4f566477cef775b5
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-13.1K
Realised
$-4.2K
Win rate
26%
77 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
5480 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-94.48
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
5480 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-94.48
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
5123 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-88.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
5123 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-88.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
5123 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-88.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
5123 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-88.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
5123 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-88.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
5123 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-88.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
3623 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-62.47
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
3623 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-571.43
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$9.99Jul 29, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$9.91Jul 29, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 29?$8.01Jul 29, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on July 29?$12.98Jul 29, 12:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on July 29?$19.94Jul 29, 11:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 29?$9.99Jul 29, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on July 29?$12.90Jul 29, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 29?$3.87Jul 29, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 29?$5.83Jul 29, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?$12.97Jul 29, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on July 29?$9.86Jul 29, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on July 29?$9.87Jul 29, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?$2.91Jul 29, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?$9.81Jul 29, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$9.69Jul 29, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$9.50Jul 29, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$5.99Jul 29, 08:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?$0.03Jul 29, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29?$35.03Jul 29, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$5.88Jul 29, 07:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
26% win rate over 77 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
77 closed markets, 26% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 19:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 17:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 77 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.