Gracious-Candle
0x4acc181edf56b63168d62688cbcddb150c7b9bda
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
143
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-780.41
Realised
$121.92
Win rate
90%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 143- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 27?
2774 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-16.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 28?
2240 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-11.75
- YES
Netanyahu out by March 31?
2137 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 27?
1965 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-13.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 27?
1517 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-9.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 2?
1200 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-16.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?
1160 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-36.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C or below on March 31?
1044 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.37
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 2?$1.93Apr 2, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 2?$2.68Apr 2, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 2?$0.13Apr 2, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 2?$12.06Apr 2, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?$8.23Apr 1, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?$2.91Apr 1, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?$0.13Apr 1, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?$1.85Apr 1, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?$0.26Apr 1, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?$0.02Apr 1, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?$0.07Apr 1, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?$0.02Apr 1, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?$1.90Apr 1, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?$14.25Apr 1, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?$0.19Apr 1, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?$1.43Apr 1, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?$1.41Apr 1, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?$1.33Apr 1, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?$0.43Apr 1, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?$0.60Apr 1, 02:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 20:07 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 2, 03:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.