Plump-Scholar
0x4ad5475f127a38852aacb2ae08ee84ff20688f07
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-307.68
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?
341 shares @ 75.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2024$0.00
$-257.83
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
122 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-47.42
- NO
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?
62 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2024$0.00
$-2.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?$47.42Jul 30, 04:42 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI browser by August 31?$47.42Jul 30, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI browser by August 31?$56.64Jul 30, 04:41 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI browser in July?$56.64Jul 30, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI browser in July?$47.39Jul 17, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$47.39Jul 17, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$49.76Jul 17, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?$10.87Jan 29, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?$2.43Dec 18, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C?$2.43Dec 18, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?$43.00Dec 18, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?$24.00Dec 18, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?$19.00Dec 18, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?$214.83Dec 17, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?$214.84Dec 17, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?$1.80Dec 17, 05:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C?$1.80Dec 17, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?$0.20Dec 17, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?$207.06Dec 11, 15:55 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?$207.25Dec 11, 15:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $46.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 7, 08:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 04:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.