Fatal-Hold
0x4ade9e7183244befea434a68a7f16221ba355628
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
44
Open notional
$30.45
Total PnL
$-521.78
Realised
$1.58
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
60 shares @ 59.7¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$25.20
$-10.60
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?
15 shares @ 30.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.25
$0.75
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6?
1245 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.07
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6?
530 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
240 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-24.29
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
200 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.55
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
198 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-21.93
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
175 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.98
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 6?
175 shares @ 23.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-41.00
- YES
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February?
162 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-24.43
Recent activity
- MERGEUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$200.00Apr 1, 12:43 UTC
- SPLITUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$200.00Apr 1, 12:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hyperliquid reach $56 in February?$0.00Apr 1, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19?$0.00Apr 1, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19?$0.00Apr 1, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hyperliquid reach $56 in February?$11.24Apr 1, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19?$100.00Apr 1, 12:17 UTC
- SPLITS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19?$100.00Feb 19, 10:10 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$72.00Feb 19, 09:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$219.00Feb 19, 09:11 UTC
- SPLITUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$300.00Feb 19, 07:19 UTC
- REWARD$1.84Feb 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $850M and $900M at market close on IPO day?$17.83Feb 12, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 5?$99.90Feb 12, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?$186.00Feb 12, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?$24.95Feb 12, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?$1.05Feb 12, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8AM ET$1.00Feb 12, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8AM ET$1.00Feb 12, 13:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $850M and $900M at market close on IPO day?$4.02Feb 12, 13:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $35.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 11, 15:19 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 12:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".