Thoughtful-Waffle
0x4adf4a9de7d6a4f47cba19ecc644dd3156070df3
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$97.24
Total PnL
$7.24
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?
15 shares @ 68.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$14.62
$4.62
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?
12 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$11.63
$1.63
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?
10 shares @ 96.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$10.39
$0.40
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
10 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$10.22
$0.22
- NO
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026?
10 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$10.20
$0.20
- NO
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
10 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$10.14
$0.14
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 4PM ET
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$10.01
$0.01
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 17?
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$10.01
$0.01
- SUNS
Suns vs. Pelicans
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$10.01
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSuns vs. Pelicans$10.00Dec 27, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEpstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?$10.00Dec 24, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 17, 4PM ET$10.00Dec 23, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 17?$10.00Dec 22, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMNorthern Kentucky Norse vs. Bellarmine Knights: O/U 152.5$10.01Dec 19, 17:45 UTC
- REDEEMNorthern Kentucky Norse vs. Bellarmine Knights: O/U 153.5$10.01Dec 19, 17:45 UTC
- REDEEMBills vs. Patriots$10.02Dec 19, 17:45 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$10.35Dec 19, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBills vs. Patriots$10.00Dec 14, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorthern Kentucky Norse vs. Bellarmine Knights: O/U 153.5$10.00Dec 13, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorthern Kentucky Norse vs. Bellarmine Knights: O/U 152.5$10.00Dec 13, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?$10.00Dec 12, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$10.00Dec 10, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $260 before 2026?$10.00Dec 9, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?$10.00Dec 9, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?$10.00Dec 9, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?$10.00Dec 9, 21:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $10.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 9, 21:06 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 27, 04:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.