Knobby-Biosphere
0x4ae6689a315f76772dd1c7957f1f4592e54f8796
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
111
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-676.20
Realised
$45.09
Win rate
51%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 111- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
333 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
330 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
253 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.20
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
194 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-14.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
188 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-14.87
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
175 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
117 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.51
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$10.36Jul 16, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$10.53Jul 16, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$10.54Jul 16, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$10.36Jul 16, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$10.44Jul 16, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$12.83Jul 16, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$10.40Jul 16, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$5.34Jul 16, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$10.24Jul 16, 06:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$16.94Jul 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$10.49Jul 16, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$10.59Jul 16, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$11.10Jul 16, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$10.25Jul 16, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$10.28Jul 16, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$0.63Jul 16, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$10.52Jul 16, 05:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$22.88Jul 16, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$10.61Jul 16, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$10.32Jul 16, 05:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
51% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
37 closed markets, 51% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $12.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 05:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 06:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.