Cautious-Haircut
0x4af779c80a2da30183116bd9b1b0a54dd1044a71
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$8.60
Total PnL
$-2.40
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
4 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$3.90
$0.90
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?
3 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.49
$0.49
- NO
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.22
$0.22
- NO
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?
4 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUkraine hits Moscow by December 31?$1.00Oct 11, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk create a new political party before August?$3.00Jul 1, 14:21 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?$4.11Jul 1, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?$0.00Jun 14, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?$1.69Jun 2, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? $1.00Jun 2, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?$3.00Jun 2, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?$1.76Jun 2, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLUS recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?$3.00May 19, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?$5.00May 2, 08:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before May? $4.23May 1, 09:59 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?$1.66Apr 30, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?$2.00Apr 1, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?$3.00Apr 1, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?$3.00Apr 1, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before May? $3.00Apr 1, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?$3.00Apr 1, 20:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $2.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 20:04 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 11, 18:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.