Cautious-Reduction
0x4b08a87221419bcfcd9a123fa4407104f780ccfc
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
140
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$199.32
Win rate
86%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 140- YES
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07?
6859 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-75.45
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 22?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3237 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.71
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10AM ET
1032 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
916 shares @ 18.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-170.40
- PARAGUAY
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)
769 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
645 shares @ 54.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-350.57
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$11.15Jul 18, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$6.90Jul 18, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$41.68Jul 18, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$130.24Jul 18, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$104.59Jul 18, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$105.15Jul 18, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$20.83Jul 18, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$116.21Jul 18, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$103.85Jul 18, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$10.55Jul 18, 19:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$52.99Jul 18, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$32.93Jul 18, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$58.15Jul 18, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$36.62Jul 18, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$54.58Jul 18, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$5.30Jul 18, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$31.40Jul 18, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$5.31Jul 18, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$92.33Jul 18, 19:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $40.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 15:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.