Prudent-Beard
0x4b0b9085394ed5fd1bc6ba1fb08cf5f96bf73f0b
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$31.88
Total PnL
$-4.8K
Realised
$169.33
Win rate
60%
72 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
222 shares @ 8.7¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$27.42
$8.10
- YES
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.10
$-0.50
- NO
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
25 shares @ 13.9¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.36
$-2.17
- YES
Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?
1292 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-55.88
- YES
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?
721 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-62.73
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV meet with Cristiano Ronaldo in 2025?
520 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-60.52
- YES
Will Martin Short win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series?
388 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2025$0.00
$-49.30
- UNDER
Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5
371 shares @ 51.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-190.70
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?
333 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-47.73
- YES
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-11-05?
333 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-93.24
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 72 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
72 closed markets, 60% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 05:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 72 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.