Puzzled-Experiment
0x4b29c63408049085d58de435b15dd177db595a9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$63.08
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$10.44
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
38 shares @ 3.5¢·now 74.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$28.27
$26.94
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?
13 shares @ 83.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$12.87
$2.15
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
100 shares @ 31.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.50
$-20.50
- NO
Will Mgladbach finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$5.00
$0.35
- NO
Will FC Heidenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
5 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$5.00
$0.85
- YES
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
20 shares @ 18.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.10
$-2.50
- YES
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
380 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.19
$-0.95
- YES
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
180 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.09
$-0.61
- YES
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
116 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.06
$-0.75
- OVER 2.5
Total Sets: O/U 2.5
500 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-220.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 4, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.