Modest-Corduroy
0x4b2f12695653edfc9e9d76a62d95d432ba4c4a32
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$109.63
Total PnL
$-61.08
Realised
$-55.98
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
42 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$41.36
$-0.06
- NO
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
36 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$36.30
$0.05
- NO
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$7.15
$0.01
- NO
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$6.25
$1.25
- NO
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.15
$0.02
- NO
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.83
$0.00
- NO
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.58
$0.02
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
2 shares @ 95.5¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.00
$0.05
- NO
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.00
$0.01
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 30, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.