Mellow-Pathway
0x4b4a0a9d023504cc73705a9ba09bb7cca7e5efa3
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
75
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.2K
Realised
$231.19
Win rate
87%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 75- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
8790 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-316.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 8?
2937 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-14.87
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
2624 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-283.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
2260 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-161.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 10?
2128 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-50.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
2109 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-99.65
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
1853 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-115.63
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
1655 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-29.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
1619 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-148.56
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
1407 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-155.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$19.58Jul 18, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$5.17Jul 18, 05:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$11.36Jul 18, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$5.20Jul 18, 05:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$18.51Jul 18, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$15.35Jul 18, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$15.15Jul 18, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$10.24Jul 18, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$1.07Jul 18, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$3.20Jul 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$6.37Jul 18, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$5.24Jul 18, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$10.43Jul 18, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$1.06Jul 18, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$2.08Jul 18, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$5.14Jul 18, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$9.40Jul 18, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$10.24Jul 18, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$35.33Jul 18, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$10.26Jul 18, 05:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $8.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 06:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 05:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.