Prudent-Somersault
0x4b5c4b3c9eed6566830f91d1f33d8877b8736276
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$554.53
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$12.70
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
884 shares @ 22.2¢·now 17.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$150.19
$-46.02
- NO
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
541 shares @ 27.7¢·now 25.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$135.18
$-14.82
- NO
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
301 shares @ 49.9¢·now 35.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$106.68
$-43.32
- NO
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
1374 shares @ 10.8¢·now 4.8¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$65.96
$-82.14
- NO
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
93 shares @ 54.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$58.33
$8.33
- NO
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
206 shares @ 48.5¢·now 18.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$38.17
$-61.82
- YES
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?
939 shares @ 63.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-600.00
- YES
Will Laure Lavalette be the next mayor of Toulon?
802 shares @ 49.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-400.00
- YES
Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
603 shares @ 17.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-103.00
- YES
Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
470 shares @ 31.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.77Jun 18, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.55Jun 17, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.47Jun 16, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.54Jun 15, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.76Jun 14, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$3.02Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.49Jun 12, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.01May 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.13May 18, 12:51 UTC
- REWARD$3.98May 18, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$5.60May 17, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$6.56May 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.00May 15, 15:29 UTC
- REWARD$3.70May 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$0.60May 14, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$2.91May 14, 12:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$46.79May 14, 11:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?$104.98May 14, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$154.34May 14, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$192.34May 14, 11:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $106.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 14, 13:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.