0x4b5c8c3915f5bcd483655803e350af8541a689e0
0x4b5c8c3915f5bcd483655803e350af8541a689e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$0.90
Total PnL
$-18.1K
Realised
$1.8K
Win rate
62%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- DENMARK
Will England or Denmark qualify for the Euro 2020 Finals?
1127 shares @ 33.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 7, 2021$0.90
$-376.51
- NO
Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418.25 ppm on March 23, 2021?
86000 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2021$0.00
$-2.2K
- YES
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?
52311 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2021$0.00
$-185.23
- NO
Will Matt Gaetz continue to hold Congressional office through June 1, 2021?
15824 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2021$0.00
$-2.5K
- NO
Will 162 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by June 1, 2021?
14492 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2021$0.00
$-1.8K
- NO
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?
10104 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2021$0.00
$-589.98
- NO
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?
10014 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2021$0.00
$-399.99
- YES
Will $DOGE reach $1 at any point before June 15, 2021?
7796 shares @ 31.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2021$0.00
$-2.4K
- NO
Will $DOGE be above 15c on April 29, 2021?
4517 shares @ 18.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2021$0.00
$-852.98
- NO
Will the Ever Given be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30?
4290 shares @ 27.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2021$0.00
$-1.2K
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.