Paltry-Fortress
0x4b5ca6cabd1252c97ebc9da92544054a96ac4568
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
94
Open notional
$191.37
Total PnL
$-347.96
Realised
$-44.42
Win rate
25%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 94- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
75 shares @ 86.5¢·now 77.7¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$58.39
$-6.61
- NO
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $LLM?
50 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$47.65
$0.15
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
80 shares @ 61.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$41.37
$-7.63
- NO
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?
40 shares @ 91.5¢·now 77.6¢·exp May 29, 2026$31.04
$-5.56
- NO
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$11.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?
20 shares @ 3.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.30
$0.70
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.25
$-0.25
- YES
Will Baidu have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.13
$-0.38
- YES
Will Melissa Agard win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
40 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.06
$-1.74
- YES
Will Kraken have the highest private market valuation on June 30?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.03
$-0.03
Recent activity
- REWARD$3.53Jun 14, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.92Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?$0.60Jun 12, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$399.79Jun 12, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$44.43Jun 12, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day?$4.59Jun 12, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14?$1.08Jun 12, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?$1.20Jun 12, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?$0.08Jun 12, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.05Jun 12, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Caleb Wilson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?$29.77Jun 12, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?$29.97Jun 12, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?$48.08Jun 12, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?$48.08Jun 12, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$100.00Jun 12, 13:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?$90.67Jun 12, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$500.00Jun 12, 03:03 UTC
- REWARD$3.75Jun 12, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$3.22Jun 11, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.52Jun 10, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $42.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 04:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.