Wallet profile

Afraid-Casket

0x4b7a7db0859cceff49e05966bfbd2202768f4817

activity 68/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

68/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

180

Open notional

$26.24

Total PnL

$-1.7K

Realised

$162.13

Win rate

63%

8 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 180

Recent activity

  • YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:18 UTC
  • TRADESELLWill Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$6.99Jun 18, 23:23 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

17/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

63% win rate over 8 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
review

23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity63 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence27 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry3 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk72 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
23
Avg trade size
$40.58
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
May 9, 22:27 UTC
Last active
Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
Win rate sample
8 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 13:48:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data