Half-Plan
0x4b854d695e6ae5e8838c513ceb775c048f83fbb7
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
54
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.7K
Realised
$-6.48
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 20?
1090 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?
900 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.30
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
720 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.76
- YES
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
700 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.60
- YES
Brazil to score first vs. Norway?
656 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-407.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?
625 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
600 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 9, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score$200.13Jul 6, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. England: Team to Advance$195.46Jul 5, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil to score first vs. Norway?$411.64Jul 5, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLParaguay vs. France: O/U 2.5$104.68Jul 4, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYParaguay vs. France: O/U 2.5$202.52Jul 4, 20:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Morocco win on 2026-07-04?$529.63Jul 4, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYCanada vs. Morocco: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$20.49Jul 4, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win on 2026-07-04?$289.95Jul 4, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$20.57Jul 3, 22:31 UTC
- REDEEMPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5$506.10Jul 3, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5$200.99Jul 2, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYColombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?$61.99Jun 27, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?$102.10Jun 27, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMSenegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?$164.19Jun 27, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSenegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?$49.99Jun 26, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)$66.05Jun 24, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLSwitzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score$65.83Jun 24, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score$29.49Jun 24, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5$149.45Jun 23, 19:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $136.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 22:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.