Cool-Pattypan
0x4b8ae011176b76888949476d7fb7a56985faf4a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$-20.1K
Realised
$3.3K
Win rate
54%
113 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1007 shares @ 64.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$573.84
$-70.51
- NO
Will Steve Rogers die in Avengers: Doomsday?
449 shares @ 54.7¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$309.61
$64.06
- YES
Will Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 total capital expenditures be above $44B?
357 shares @ 32.9¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$306.90
$189.52
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
400 shares @ 46.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$222.00
$38.10
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
300 shares @ 60.9¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$214.50
$31.69
- NO
Will Big Brother episode not air?
400 shares @ 99.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$208.00
$-188.00
- YES
Will AbbVie Q2 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $18B?
385 shares @ 52.1¢·now 43.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$167.66
$-32.88
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
597 shares @ 31.3¢·now 27.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$161.19
$-25.52
- NO
Will Chevron (CVX) Q2 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.1M?
201 shares @ 67.2¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$158.55
$23.63
- NO
Will Airbnb (ABNB) Q2 gross booking value be above $27.6B?
215 shares @ 68.2¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$147.17
$0.67
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Pillow" during Big Brother E12?$26.97Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Tariff" during earnings call?$0.40Jul 28, 15:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple say "Widget" during earnings call?$3.41Jul 28, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "GPU / CPU" during earnings call?$15.50Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "AirPod" during earnings call?$8.68Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Health" during earnings call?$15.50Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Liquid Glass" during earnings call?$22.94Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Gemini" during earnings call?$17.05Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Mac" 10+ times during earnings call?$5.27Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Home" during earnings call?$17.36Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Creator Studio" during earnings call?$22.94Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Tariff" during earnings call?$2.80Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting?$55.00Jul 28, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "War" 8+ times during House of the Dragon E7 S3?$4.96Jul 28, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "War" 8+ times during House of the Dragon E7 S3?$4.03Jul 28, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft say "Gaming" during earnings call?$26.35Jul 28, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon say "Layoff / Job Cut" during earnings call?$8.99Jul 28, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "TikTok" during earnings call?$0.34Jul 28, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft say "Windows 11" during earnings call?$1.14Jul 28, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft say "Excel" during earnings call?$14.03Jul 28, 14:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 113 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
113 closed markets, 54% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $20.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 113 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.