Amusing-Tolerant
0x4ba85c73dcb1b4f86f85d0f1388dca8c142c64ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$4.57
Total PnL
$-366.69
Realised
$-138.85
Win rate
14%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- YES
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
5 shares @ 97.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$4.57
$0.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 18?
21946 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-21.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 18?
21946 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-21.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 18?
21938 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-22.99
- YES
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
12461 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-23.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on April 18?
1701 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-11.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 19?
292 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on April 18?
281 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on April 18?
198 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?
64 shares @ 71.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-45.94
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$1.05Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 22?$1.10Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or higher on April 21?$1.10Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 22?$1.10Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 23?$1.11Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 23?$1.11Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 23?$1.11Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 22?$1.12Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 22?$1.12Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22?$1.12Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 22?$1.12Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21?$1.12Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 22?$1.13Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 21?$1.16Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 21?$1.17Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 22?$1.18Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 21?$1.18Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21?$1.25Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 23?$1.26Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 21?$1.39Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $1.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 23, 06:33 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 20:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.