All-Instant
0x4bafb3c4c9860bd4533bf5cf30a164e2bd71b22b
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$374.62
Total PnL
$-3.7K
Realised
$70.41
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?
147 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$147.06
$97.06
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1520 shares @ 7.0¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$73.72
$-32.69
- YES
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
10000 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$55.00
$-65.00
- NO
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
54 shares @ 96.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$53.97
$1.66
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1000 shares @ 1.8¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$25.40
$7.40
- YES
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4092 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$18.42
$-35.04
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
100 shares @ 3.4¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.05
$-2.35
- YES
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?
4472 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-711.13
- YES
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
3829 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-170.67
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2794 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-469.39
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $118.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.