Wallet digest

active

Activity score

42/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.7K

Realised

$-17.60

Win rate

30%

20 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 33

UNDER
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5
1755 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-859.95
UNDER
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5
1289 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-670.28
OVER
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5
32 shares @ 51.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026
$0.00
$-16.21
UNDER
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5
16 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026
$0.00
$-8.53
OVER
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 6.5
16 shares @ 48.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-7.66
OVER
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5
12 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-6.67
UNDER
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5
11 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-5.72
OVER
Minaur vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 36.5
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-4.85
UNDER
Michalski vs. Hassan: Match O/U 21.5
9 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-4.58
DONSKI
Set 1 Winner: Donski vs Duran
9 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-4.32

Recent activity

TRADEBUYMinaur vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 36.5$4.93Jul 2, 05:57 UTC
REDEEMCoppejans vs. Wessels: Match O/U 21.5$5.30Jun 30, 04:22 UTC
TRADEBUYCoppejans vs. Wessels: Match O/U 21.5$1.75Jun 30, 04:08 UTC
TRADEBUYCoppejans vs. Wessels: Match O/U 21.5$3.55Jun 30, 04:08 UTC
TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5$0.59Jun 28, 05:16 UTC
TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5$2.79Jun 28, 05:16 UTC
REDEEMBalshaw vs. Nedic: Match O/U 21.5$7.70Jun 26, 11:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBalshaw vs. Nedic: Match O/U 21.5$2.75Jun 26, 01:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBalshaw vs. Nedic: Match O/U 21.5$1.17Jun 26, 01:59 UTC
REDEEMMajor League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings - Who wins the toss?$6.70Jun 25, 04:09 UTC
TRADEBUYMajor League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings - Who wins the toss?$3.40Jun 24, 06:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBarcelona vs. Valencia$3.59Jun 22, 08:57 UTC
REDEEMKBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes$6.90Jun 20, 13:12 UTC
TRADEBUYKBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes$3.50Jun 20, 01:53 UTC
TRADEBUYNoskova vs. Badosa: Match O/U 21.5$2.34Jun 19, 08:59 UTC
TRADEBUYNoskova vs. Badosa: Match O/U 21.5$1.14Jun 19, 08:59 UTC
REDEEMMinnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5$6.90Jun 18, 04:38 UTC
TRADEBUYMinnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5$3.45Jun 18, 00:23 UTC
REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers$5.60Jun 17, 00:41 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers$2.84Jun 16, 02:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

53/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

30% win rate over 20 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence67 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry97 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $28.23
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 17, 08:00 UTC
Last active: Jul 2, 05:57 UTC
Win rate sample: 20 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 08:30:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data