Upset-Respite
0x4bdc030a7e458a8692037ee4a27d4ae90978441c
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$28.33
Total PnL
$-84.35
Realised
$-0.94
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
189 shares @ 18.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$28.33
$-5.67
- HEROIC
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
15040 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-15.04
- SENTINELS
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega
11780 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-11.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?
11780 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-11.78
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?
9350 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.35
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?
4915 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.83
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?
1988 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.98
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?
1015 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.12
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?
119 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 28?
50 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.96
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $9.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 07:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.