Medium-Responsibility
0x4c039d1350e83f378be2356f543e8d2e13fe604e
Wallet digest
Activity score
26/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-26.5K
Realised
$-5.0K
Win rate
26%
91 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 17?
765 shares @ 29.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-225.14
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on February 7?
764 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-52.53
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 22?
755 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-53.17
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22?
754 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-213.21
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?
750 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-18.75
- MAVERICKS
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks
750 shares @ 23.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-176.24
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17?
745 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-7.13
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?
742 shares @ 65.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-483.61
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $124,000 and $126,000 on October 8?
740 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 8, 2025$0.00
$-137.18
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 22?
737 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-65.31
Recent activity
- REDEEMTexas A&M vs. LSU$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMOdds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?$0.02Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on December 14?$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $180 November 10-16?$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on August 18?$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 24?$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 6?$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 18?$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on July 15?$0.00Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 18?$0.00Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15?$0.00Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 1?$0.00Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2?$0.00Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October 8?$0.00Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 2?$0.01Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on December 1?$0.00Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $3,300 December 15-21?$0.00Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 15?$0.00Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
26% win rate over 91 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
91 closed markets, 26% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 30, 21:24 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 30, 21:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 91 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.