Severe-Fortress
0x4c1be3350bba0028767c490b530063a945865ca5
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$36.49
Total PnL
$-13.36
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?
32 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$31.75
$11.75
- NO
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
2 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.04
$1.04
- NO
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.41
$0.41
- NO
Maduro out in 2025?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.30
$0.30
- YES
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out in 2025?
31 shares @ 31.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-9.86
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
9 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 30?
7 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by November 30?$1.08Dec 8, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Siversk by November 30?$1.27Dec 8, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?$1.33Dec 8, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Lyman by November 30?$1.35Dec 8, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?$1.37Dec 8, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump talk to Keir Starmer in November?$1.75Dec 8, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?$3.70Dec 8, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?$1.00Nov 13, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?$1.00Nov 13, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by November 30?$1.00Nov 13, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30?$1.00Nov 13, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?$1.00Nov 13, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in November?$1.00Nov 13, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?$1.00Nov 13, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Keir Starmer in November?$1.00Nov 13, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in November?$1.00Nov 13, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in November?$1.00Nov 13, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Narendra Modi in November?$1.00Nov 13, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump sue the BBC?$1.00Nov 13, 09:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025?$3.13Nov 3, 13:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 29, 10:34 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 8, 16:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.