Subtle-Killing
0x4c2fbd8f55d15c3871df9f954499afe2a83c3794
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
111
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$-90.1K
Realised
$1.3K
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 111- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
78600 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$903.90
$-494.39
- YES
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
89486 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$581.66
$-164.30
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
64125 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$416.81
$-130.05
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
16581 shares @ 2.8¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$389.65
$-71.33
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10000 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$235.00
$-24.27
- YES
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
4421 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$42.00
$3.00
- YES
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
902 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$2.26
$-2.74
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
776437 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.2K
- YES
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?
131733 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-10.6K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?
60000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.24Apr 1, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Mar 31, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Mar 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Mar 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Mar 28, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Mar 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.30Mar 26, 00:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Mar 25, 00:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Mar 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.30Mar 23, 00:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.30Mar 22, 00:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Mar 21, 00:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Mar 20, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Mar 19, 00:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Mar 18, 00:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Mar 17, 01:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Mar 16, 00:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Mar 15, 00:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Mar 14, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Mar 13, 01:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $19.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 15, 17:50 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.