Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.1K

Realised

$-115.55

Win rate

15 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
4250 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-4.25
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
3950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-3.95
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
3900 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-3.90
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
3850 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-3.85
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
3847 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-23.45
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
3700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-3.70
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
3650 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-3.65
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
3450 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-3.45
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
3414 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-41.40
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
2961 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-5.60

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$2.69Jul 28, 14:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$3.09Jul 28, 14:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$3.86Jul 28, 14:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$3.62Jul 28, 14:32 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$15.17Jul 28, 14:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$4.53Jul 28, 14:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$4.44Jul 28, 14:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$4.39Jul 28, 14:22 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$5.00Jul 28, 14:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$3.72Jul 28, 14:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.83Jul 28, 14:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$2.94Jul 28, 14:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$3.68Jul 28, 14:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$3.92Jul 28, 14:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$4.26Jul 28, 14:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$0.65Jul 28, 14:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$3.72Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$3.63Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$3.88Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$4.07Jul 28, 14:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 15 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence50 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry53 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $3.45
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 14:32 UTC
Win rate sample: 15 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:49:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data