Reflecting-Pantology
0x4c4ed674fde7dc998036b3ae92445d00fcdb297b
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$7.8K
Total PnL
$-6.3K
Realised
$-4.0K
Win rate
27%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- YES
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
2203 shares @ 83.9¢·now 79.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.8K
$-95.93
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
17651 shares @ 8.9¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.7K
$110.60
- NO
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
1500 shares @ 75.2¢·now 94.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.4K
$281.44
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
20025 shares @ 4.2¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$550.69
$-297.65
- NO
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
453 shares @ 90.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$449.20
$41.25
- NO
Will Microsoft have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
364 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$361.45
$1.46
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
811 shares @ 31.3¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$320.40
$66.16
- NO
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
265 shares @ 88.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$259.17
$25.97
- NO
Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader?
228 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$227.14
$3.14
- NO
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 79.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$173.00
$15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?$261.22Jun 13, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$12.77Jun 13, 06:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.57Jun 13, 03:56 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?$2.79Jun 13, 02:52 UTC
- CONVERSIONWhich company has best AI model end of June?$542.87Jun 13, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.18Jun 13, 02:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$89.63Jun 13, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$287.97Jun 13, 02:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$72.13Jun 11, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?$418.78Jun 11, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?$582.05Jun 11, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?$1.1KJun 11, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?$1.4KJun 11, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?$50.00Jun 11, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?$93.56Jun 11, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?$179.38Jun 11, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$250.00Jun 11, 00:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.04Jun 9, 07:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.00Jun 9, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.00Jun 9, 07:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $18.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 12:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 16:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.