Hopeful-Crunch
0x4c58341c65914daa99bf6bfc61837617d0003036
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.4K
Realised
$535.93
Win rate
58%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
36605 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-68.96
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
5963 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-94.06
- NO
Will Tim Walz drop out by January 6?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 13?
1484 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-58.62
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7AM ET
1123 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-92.47
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 9?
1000 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6PM ET
777 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-60.90
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
700 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-51.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
688 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-13.77
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 17?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$0.20Jul 26, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$0.06Jul 26, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$0.14Jul 26, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$13.56Jul 18, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$7.58Jul 18, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$3.60Jul 18, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$2.08Jul 18, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.06Jul 17, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3PM ET$9.94Jul 17, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$1.04Jul 17, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$1.48Jul 17, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$3.00Jul 17, 19:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$0.01Jul 17, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$15.45Jul 17, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$1.43Jul 17, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$1.37Jul 17, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$5.24Jul 17, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$2.11Jul 17, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$6.37Jul 17, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2PM ET$19.51Jul 17, 18:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $4.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 16:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 00:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.