Inexperienced-Peacoat
0x4c6373e674a491fc7f9b1a6447e5b8e57a7a185c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$77.87
Total PnL
$6.33
Realised
$42.03
Win rate
89%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- YES
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
483 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.62
$1.97
- YES
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?
228 shares @ 0.4¢·now 1.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.74
$1.83
- YES
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
797 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$2.39
$0.48
- YES
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
583 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.04
$0.04
- YES
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
551 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$1.93
$0.05
- YES
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?
583 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.46
$-0.54
- YES
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
123 shares @ 0.3¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.41
$1.00
- YES
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
451 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.35
$-0.12
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?
373 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.31
$-0.06
- YES
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.25
$0.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 24, 02:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.01Jul 24, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.01Jul 24, 00:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?$0.09Jul 24, 00:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?$0.04Jul 24, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?$0.05Jul 23, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$0.01Jul 23, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$0.00Jul 23, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 23, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 23, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 23, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ekaterina Alexandrova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$1.25Jul 23, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 23, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.01Jul 23, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$0.00Jul 23, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.02Jul 23, 22:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 23, 22:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$0.01Jul 23, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.01Jul 23, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.01Jul 23, 21:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
55 closed markets, 89% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 14:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 02:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.