Distorted-Sombrero
0x4c6e77d1c824721e1624833a0872e0a851bcf3e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
62
Open notional
$81.54
Total PnL
$-414.01
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
59 shares @ 17.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$58.82
$48.82
- YES
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
12 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.20
$7.20
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
71 shares @ 28.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.64
$-10.36
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 30.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.55
$-0.45
- YES
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.32
$-0.68
- YES
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?
26 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.01
$-9.99
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
5527 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-153.26
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
515 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
150 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
103 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$7.26Feb 9, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$7.25Feb 9, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$52.18Feb 9, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition$52.19Feb 9, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$57.58Feb 9, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$1.92Feb 9, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLJosh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl?$4.90Feb 9, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine Peace Parlay$1.00Feb 9, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?$49.75Feb 9, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$36.25Feb 9, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?$1.39Jan 25, 23:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$14.96Jan 25, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$10.00Jan 24, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$20.00Jan 23, 17:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$0.00Jan 20, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYInsurrection Act invoked by March 31?$10.00Jan 20, 15:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$49.77Jan 20, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$8.00Jan 20, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$3.00Jan 20, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Superbowl" or "Super Bowl" during the National College Football Championship Game?$30.00Jan 19, 22:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $11.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 4, 21:05 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 9, 22:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".