Attentive-Constant
0x4c707f4222bd994a6888c1bbfd9d100a59b527aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$7.50
Total PnL
$-6.70
Realised
$-0.04
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.14
$0.00
- NO
Will Canva have the highest private market valuation on June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.14
$0.00
- NO
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.13
$0.00
- NO
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.04
$-0.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.03
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 42°C on June 29?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- NO
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.39
- YES
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.06
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.61
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?$3.56Jun 28, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?$4.70Jun 28, 17:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June?$3.94Jun 28, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?$1.00Jun 28, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June?$5.00Jun 28, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$2.97Jun 28, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?$3.98Jun 28, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?$5.11Jun 28, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$4.00Jun 28, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 42°C on June 29?$8.09Jun 28, 16:55 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$1.01Jun 28, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 42°C on June 29?$9.12Jun 28, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?$1.00May 28, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$1.01May 28, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or higher on May 21?$1.01May 28, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?$1.01May 28, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-19?$1.06May 28, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?$1.08May 28, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?$1.09May 28, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canva have the highest private market valuation on June 30?$1.85May 20, 04:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $4.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 12:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 28, 17:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.