Ironclad-Percentage
0x4c7bc91a486382f864655b7229dd4d7e32be0f76
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$23.69
Total PnL
$-196.23
Realised
$-10.96
Win rate
3%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in August?
10 shares @ 84.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$8.81
$0.25
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
10 shares @ 83.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$7.73
$-0.77
- NO
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?
5 shares @ 66.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$2.98
$-0.02
- BILLS
Panthers vs. Bills
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.10
$0.10
- BUF
Spread: CAR (-1.5)
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.09
$0.09
- NO
Will RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Elche CF end in a draw?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-08-15?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?
145 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-23.94
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?
130 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.44
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
25 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.57
Recent activity
- TRADESELLColorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$2.63Aug 12, 04:16 UTC
- REDEEMCleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers$1.82Aug 12, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves$1.82Aug 12, 01:43 UTC
- REDEEMChicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5$1.82Aug 12, 00:47 UTC
- REDEEMDota 2: Rune Eaters vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner$1.45Aug 11, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Rune Eaters vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner$1.02Aug 11, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-08-15?$1.03Aug 11, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner$5.10Aug 11, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner$3.09Aug 11, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYPanthers vs. Bills$1.03Aug 11, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: CAR (-1.5)$1.02Aug 11, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$1.03Aug 11, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves$1.02Aug 11, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5$1.02Aug 11, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYCleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers$1.02Aug 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: MOUZ vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner$1.02Aug 11, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Spirit Academy vs No Hoodwink - Game 1 Winner$1.02Aug 11, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMTampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5$1.85Aug 11, 04:03 UTC
- REDEEMBaltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins$2.08Aug 11, 02:46 UTC
- REDEEMBoston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays$2.50Aug 11, 02:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
65/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
32 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 9, 09:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 04:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.