Staid-Sorrel
0x4c8b4f69fe57aa2de5be103002066e0203951614
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$69.80
Total PnL
$-2.4K
Realised
$572.36
Win rate
29%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?
110 shares @ 9.1¢·now 12.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$13.75
$3.75
- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
38 shares @ 13.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.88
$7.88
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
483 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.86
$0.86
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
118 shares @ 8.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.50
$-3.50
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
269 shares @ 6.3¢·now 2.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.91
$-11.09
- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
33 shares @ 30.2¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$3.97
$-6.03
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?
130 shares @ 4.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.18
$-1.98
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the WI-02 House seat?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.17
$-6.83
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
56 shares @ 18.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.06
$-6.95
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
65 shares @ 3.4¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.84
$0.64
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $2.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.