Warped-Impression
0x4c90de02b39c0acd0939076b2ea6f0f53dde0d14
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
107
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-882.29
Realised
$-10.68
Win rate
9%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 107- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 1?
268 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-38.29
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
167 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 3?
124 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-12.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
109 shares @ 41.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 2?
105 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 5?
102 shares @ 17.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-17.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 4?
99 shares @ 24.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-24.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 5?
98 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-40.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 7?
95 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 8?
94 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-14.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$10.36May 17, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$10.47May 17, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$10.35May 17, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$15.63May 17, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$5.25May 17, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$5.23May 17, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$5.17May 14, 12:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$5.70May 14, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$5.27May 14, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$10.38May 8, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$10.37May 8, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$10.41May 8, 06:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$15.37May 8, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$10.54May 8, 06:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$138.24May 8, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$15.27May 8, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$20.55May 8, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$10.47May 8, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$20.59May 8, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$10.36May 8, 06:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 2, 08:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 10:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.