Mature-Jalapeño
0x4cb94bb560ddd14728b83a1d6fe8f8896999254c
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$63.00
Total PnL
$0.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
60 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$60.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$40.08Jun 17, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.00Jun 17, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$60.00Jun 17, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.00Jun 17, 12:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?$15.02Jun 17, 12:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?$50.05Jun 17, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$40.00May 23, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?$50.00May 23, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?$15.00May 23, 15:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$1.20May 23, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $800 in February?$1.77May 23, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$2.20May 23, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $4,200 in February?$5.78May 23, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $4,400 in February?$5.78May 23, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $3,800 in February?$12.01May 23, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?$20.02May 23, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$50.66May 23, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,800 in February?$12.00Feb 24, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,200 in February?$5.77Feb 24, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,400 in February?$5.77Feb 24, 15:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $16.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 17, 04:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 21:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.