Complex-Magazine
0x4ccc7cf14c345bbe3385060d43001199f8e41b36
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
165
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-832.22
Realised
$-18.36
Win rate
64%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 165- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5?
5500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 10?
1235 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 7?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on August 28?
420 shares @ 23.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 7?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7?
323 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on August 25?
283 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 25, 2025$0.00
$-82.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on August 29?
263 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 29, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 7?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on August 13?
136 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$1.49Jul 23, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$1.05Jul 23, 03:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.40Jul 22, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.04Jul 22, 21:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.83Jul 22, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.05Jul 22, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$0.73Jul 22, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.03Jul 22, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.06Jul 22, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$1.75Jul 22, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$0.48Jul 22, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$1.05Jul 22, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$1.04Jul 22, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$1.35Jul 22, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$1.03Jul 22, 03:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$1.13Jul 22, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$1.04Jul 22, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$1.17Jul 22, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$1.02Jul 22, 03:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$1.17Jul 22, 03:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 00:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 03:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.