Excited-Cutlet
0x4cd4554904388f7efe1f95bb0eba3dd507c38a5c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$224.38
Total PnL
$357.45
Realised
$364.30
Win rate
65%
80 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$14.50
$-1.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 14?
10 shares @ 12.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$9.99
$8.79
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$9.93
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 80.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$7.55
$-0.45
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 16?
10 shares @ 76.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$7.25
$-0.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 16?
7 shares @ 93.1¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$6.78
$0.19
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 15?
10 shares @ 66.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$6.45
$-0.15
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 15?
9 shares @ 66.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.67
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 15?
8 shares @ 69.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.34
$0.04
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 15?
7 shares @ 73.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.03
$-0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 16?$0.18Jul 14, 22:53 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 15?$1.10Jul 14, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 15?$2.71Jul 14, 22:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 14?$0.00Jul 14, 22:48 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 15?$14.00Jul 14, 22:48 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 15?$4.00Jul 14, 22:48 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 15?$6.67Jul 14, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 15?$0.14Jul 14, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 15?$0.14Jul 14, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 15?$9.49Jul 14, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 15?$0.31Jul 14, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 15?$3.16Jul 14, 22:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 14?$0.00Jul 14, 22:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 14?$0.00Jul 14, 22:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 14?$0.00Jul 14, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 15?$8.90Jul 14, 22:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 14?$0.00Jul 14, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 15?$0.84Jul 14, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 15?$1.60Jul 14, 22:46 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 15?$6.00Jul 14, 22:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 80 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
80 closed markets, 65% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $2.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 22:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 22:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 80 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.