Guilty-Programme-Acquaintance
0x4ce6b8d77789c1b9aa76a2699c907f5f7e2d40df
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-754.93
Realised
$-15.67
Win rate
5%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- UP
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 30?
1311 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-118.17
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
471 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 18?
402 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
280 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18?
184 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.17
- UP
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18?
184 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-12.18
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
136 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$4.97Jun 30, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.22Jun 30, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.22Jun 30, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$25.80Jun 30, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$2.05Jun 30, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$2.44Jun 30, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$2.75Jun 30, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$20.26Jun 30, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$26.08Jun 30, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$25.88Jun 30, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$49.14Jun 30, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$25.94Jun 30, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.34Jun 30, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$0.00Jun 30, 21:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$32.05Jun 30, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$25.38Jun 30, 21:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$0.00Jun 30, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.04Jun 30, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 30?$5.19Jun 30, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.36Jun 30, 17:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 44 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
44 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $10.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 18:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 21:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.