Dark-Pension
0x4cf0f1d857159c5e3fa145e21cea2a058fefb1f4
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
92
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-148.54
Realised
$14.30
Win rate
100%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 92- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 16?
56 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 18?
52 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 16?
48 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 18?
37 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on May 16?
35 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 16?
35 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 16?
32 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 17?
28 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 18?
25 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 18?
25 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.74
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 48°C or higher on May 18?$7.00May 22, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 18?$8.00May 22, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 18?$7.00May 22, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 18?$10.00May 21, 21:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on May 18?$24.00May 21, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 18?$6.00May 20, 23:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 18?$5.65May 20, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 18?$0.22May 18, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 18?$1.10May 18, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 18?$1.12May 18, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 18?$1.08May 18, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 18?$1.08May 18, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 18?$0.06May 18, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 18?$0.25May 18, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on May 18?$0.17May 18, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on May 18?$0.85May 18, 01:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.32May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 18?$0.71May 18, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 18?$1.32May 18, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 18?$2.16May 18, 00:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 14:11 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 04:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.