Partial-Grain
0x4cf5f0c8f1b11a43a65392aa7c3d1251d69f21c2
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
161
Open notional
$12.84
Total PnL
$-6.5K
Realised
$-2.3K
Win rate
1%
143 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 161- YES
Will Donald Trump endorse Donald Trump in the 2028 US Presidential election?
173 shares @ 6.9¢·now 5.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2028$8.67
$-3.33
- YES
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?
12 shares @ 50.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$4.17
$-2.06
- EDWARD GAMING
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs
1130 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
353 shares @ 67.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-239.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
277 shares @ 55.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-152.91
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
269 shares @ 55.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-150.31
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
269 shares @ 53.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-142.71
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
251 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-32.85
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
235 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
214 shares @ 60.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-130.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$4.88Aug 19, 03:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$3.20Aug 19, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?$6.39Aug 19, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$2.10Aug 7, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump endorse Donald Trump in the 2028 US Presidential election?$12.45Aug 7, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$3.88Aug 7, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLValorant: DRX vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega$4.59Jul 17, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: DRX vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega$12.36Jul 10, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$31.31Jul 7, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?$8.82Jul 7, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?$23.46Jul 7, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-07-06? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?$14.93Jul 6, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States vs. Belgium end in a draw? AND Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?$10.00Jul 6, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-07-06? AND Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?$14.99Jul 6, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?$14.99Jul 5, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-07-04? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? AND Will England win on 2026-07-05?$14.99Jul 4, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-07-04? AND Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-07-05?$9.99Jul 4, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?$19.99Jul 3, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?$4.99Jul 3, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?$24.99Jul 3, 09:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 143 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
143 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $10.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 13:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 03:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 143 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.