Bumpy-Conscience
0x4d024ca7cc33791eb197285f685dbfc3a0fe2ad3
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
55
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$180.39
Realised
$2.38
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
128 shares @ 15.6¢·now 74.2¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$95.18
$75.18
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
77 shares @ 39.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$76.04
$46.04
- YES
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?
67 shares @ 15.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$66.23
$56.23
- YES
Will Verizon (VZ) Q2 total operating revenue be above $35B?
57 shares @ 69.8¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$47.02
$7.02
- YES
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?
42 shares @ 24.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$40.96
$30.96
- YES
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
54 shares @ 74.5¢·now 74.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$39.94
$-0.06
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
48 shares @ 63.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$38.57
$8.57
- YES
Will Larry Rhoden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by more than 20%?
56 shares @ 35.9¢·now 68.2¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$38.05
$18.05
- NO
Will RTX (RTX) Q2 Pratt & Whitney sales be above $9B?
45 shares @ 66.1¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$37.43
$7.43
- YES
Will 2–3 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?
59 shares @ 51.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$35.88
$5.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?$1.75Jul 21, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?$0.70Jul 21, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?$1.14Jul 21, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?$5.06Jul 21, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?$0.25Jul 21, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?$5.50Jul 21, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in July?$5.45Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in July?$4.19Jul 21, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?$20.80Jul 21, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?$27.69Jul 21, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?$28.61Jul 21, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Charles Schwab (SCHW) Q2 core net new assets be above $95B?$55.56Jul 21, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?$20.80Jul 21, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PPI YoY be 5.3% in July?$8.36Jul 21, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PPI YoY be 5.5% in July?$8.36Jul 21, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PPI YoY be 5.4% in July?$8.37Jul 21, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$30.69Jul 21, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?$10.47Jul 21, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?$30.82Jul 21, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?$30.45Jul 21, 11:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $16.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 06:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 15:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.