Gruesome-Bagel
0x4d09a7785a500ab3f604621a885a3d4389b80852
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-238.47
Realised
$97.46
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025?
2514 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
1695 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- YES
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?
1516 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 2?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
737 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-49.74
- YES
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
449 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-35.48
- YES
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?
380 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.80
- NO
Will Aztec launch a token by March 31, 2026?
351 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
340 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-15.40
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?
294 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$7.00Jan 31, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by March 31?$9.50Jan 26, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aztec launch a token by March 31, 2026?$10.00Jan 26, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$20.00Jan 26, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$10.00Dec 6, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$5.00Dec 6, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$20.00Dec 6, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$15.85Dec 6, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$14.93Dec 6, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$5.00Dec 6, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$4.00Dec 6, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$3.00Dec 6, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$3.00Dec 6, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$7.00Dec 6, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$4.98Dec 6, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$22.23Dec 6, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$29.60Dec 6, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$5.00Dec 6, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$15.00Dec 6, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$5.00Dec 6, 10:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 4, 11:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 31, 16:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.