Villainous-Suspect
0x4d2106c4d239ea4e4d0d135bc5b2057a64b62c72
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$57.21
Win rate
70%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8AM ET
1025 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
400 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
287 shares @ 33.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-96.92
- YES
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11.5m?
270 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
5+ days Gov Shutdown Odds >50% Monday Night (12-1 AM)?
235 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12AM ET
200 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-29.89
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12AM ET
151 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 68 and 71 million views on day 3?
146 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$0.66Jul 19, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$13.41Jul 19, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$13.71Jul 19, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$8.01Jul 19, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLSwedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luciano Darderi$7.92Jul 19, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luciano Darderi$24.83Jul 19, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$2.81Jul 1, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$2.75Jul 1, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$12.14Jul 1, 11:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 11:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$10.58Jul 1, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$8.48Jul 1, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6AM ET$1.06Jul 1, 10:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 10:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET$11.13Jul 1, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET$7.74Jul 1, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.04Jul 1, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$2.92Jul 1, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.06Jul 1, 09:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $9.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 07:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 14:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.