Single-Fallacy
0x4d28ba3682193e9f0dc3eddfcac93aec3362f2f3
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-32.49
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Carolina Tohá win the Chilean presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Kast win by at least 9%?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
444 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
433 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-2.60
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?
142 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.42
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?$8.00Nov 17, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?$1.00Nov 17, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India?$2.00Nov 17, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in November?$1.00Nov 17, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Jair Bolsonaro in November?$1.00Nov 17, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.00Nov 17, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kast win by at least 9%?$1.00Nov 17, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMusk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?$2.42Nov 17, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at $460-$465 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?$1.00Nov 17, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carolina Tohá win the Chilean presidential election?$1.00Nov 17, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? $1.00Nov 17, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?$1.47Nov 14, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?$0.50Nov 14, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? $1.00Nov 12, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?$1.00Nov 12, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$2.60Nov 12, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 12-15?$1.00Nov 12, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?$4.00Nov 12, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?$1.00Nov 12, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?$1.00Nov 12, 06:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $1.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 12, 06:21 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 17, 17:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.