Essential-Seaplane
0x4d2b47783ea4c9a7789a2f995be4908887b0e5b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$5.04
Total PnL
$-100.96
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.86
$1.86
- YES
Will Annie Andrews be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$1.10
$0.10
- YES
Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$1.09
$0.09
- YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?
286 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Tesla reach $615 in November?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of November?
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will New Zealand win?
1 shares @ 98.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?$100.00Jan 17, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close at <$255 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?$1.00Jan 17, 12:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill no CEO be announced in 2025?$1.03Jan 17, 12:57 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$1.04Jan 17, 12:57 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$1.06Jan 17, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$0.96Dec 4, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.00Dec 4, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on December 4?$0.61Dec 4, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on December 4?$1.00Dec 4, 11:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?$0.96Dec 4, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close at <$255 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 1 – Dec 5?$1.00Dec 4, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$1.00Dec 4, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$0.99Dec 4, 11:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Stranger Things" have 4+ seasons in Netflix's top 5 this week?$1.00Dec 4, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New Zealand win?$1.00Dec 4, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$1.00Dec 4, 05:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb reach $168 in November?$1.01Dec 4, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$1.07Dec 4, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Stranger Things" have 4+ seasons in Netflix's top 5 this week?$1.00Dec 3, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.00Dec 3, 06:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $5.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 19, 08:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 17, 13:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.