0x4d3d4e0dbc59cafa6e4dc636733aa57ad429ac3e
0x4d3d4e0dbc59cafa6e4dc636733aa57ad429ac3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-300.0K
Realised
$-117.9K
Win rate
8%
95 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
39817 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 15, 2025$0.00
$-3.3K
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
39803 shares @ 80.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-32.2K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
32281 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-2.5K
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
30000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-300.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
19601 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
12327 shares @ 70.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-8.6K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
12130 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-407.98
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
11064 shares @ 44.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.9K
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
10728 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.1K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
10573 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-2.6K
Recent activity
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$3.67Jun 13, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$5.10Jun 13, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.07Jun 13, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.08Jun 13, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.09Jun 13, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.08Jun 13, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.84Jun 13, 09:04 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$3.89Jun 13, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.10Jun 13, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.09Jun 13, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$1.07Jun 13, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$1.07Jun 13, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$2.31Jun 13, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.09Jun 13, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.08Jun 13, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.09Jun 13, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.08Jun 13, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$1.09Jun 13, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$1.09Jun 13, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.10Jun 13, 08:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 95 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
95 closed markets, 8% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 07:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 09:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 95 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.