Average-Claim
0x4d76fd2818d8655235e273028504c80dad9cd7a0
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$867.14
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$-164.55
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
7862 shares @ 7.1¢·now 7.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$589.62
$29.90
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
1181 shares @ 19.3¢·now 23.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$277.52
$49.62
- NO
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
4241 shares @ 85.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.6K
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
2500 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-250.00
- NO
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
1250 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1000.00
- NO
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
926 shares @ 24.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-225.97
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?
886 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-611.34
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17?
700 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-44.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?$4.22Jun 12, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?$128.42Jun 9, 08:10 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum flipped in 2026?$1.3KJun 9, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$306.75May 19, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?$265.43Apr 6, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?$7.00Apr 3, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?$165.07Apr 3, 01:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$800.00Apr 2, 11:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?$1.6KApr 2, 11:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.1KMar 11, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by March 31?$514.08Mar 11, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$115.00Mar 11, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$70.00Mar 11, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$40.97Mar 10, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?$17.55Mar 9, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?$48.00Mar 9, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?$24.96Mar 9, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?$60.48Mar 9, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?$20.64Mar 9, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?$4.80Mar 9, 15:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $116.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 12:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 21:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.