0x4d7939cd3009ba80ef316073e9638e7a580ae9e8
0x4d7939cd3009ba80ef316073e9638e7a580ae9e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-48.75
Win rate
4%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
434 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
339 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
323 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET
306 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
250 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
222 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
191 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
128 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
109 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$10.66Aug 9, 14:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.67Aug 9, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.04Aug 9, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$24.84Aug 9, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$20.51Aug 9, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$24.36Aug 9, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$10.52Aug 9, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$1.08Aug 9, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$1.07Aug 9, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$45.55Jul 27, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$40.79Jul 27, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$38.42Jul 27, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$102.33Jul 27, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$7.14Jul 17, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$5.36Jul 17, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$5.15Jul 17, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$16.60Jul 17, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$52.43Jul 17, 08:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$13.72Jul 17, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$5.28Jul 17, 08:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
53 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $62.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 16:26 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 14:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.