Disguised-Output
0x4d826f2ad8b4fa42d7ad08b940b696857d78a5e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
6
Open notional
$998.06
Total PnL
$-3.6K
Realised
$-238.73
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
5287 shares @ 33.5¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$872.33
$-900.45
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
994 shares @ 85.7¢·now 12.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$125.74
$-726.03
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?
1003 shares @ 64.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-645.76
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?
945 shares @ 37.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-350.10
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?
799 shares @ 36.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-291.37
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
603 shares @ 78.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-473.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$550.08Jul 28, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?$19.27Jul 28, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$530.83Jul 28, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$306.56Jul 28, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$104.20Jul 25, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?$103.70Jul 25, 01:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$103.42Jul 24, 12:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$216.51Jul 24, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$201.44Jul 24, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?$103.74Jul 24, 00:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$499.79Jul 24, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$74.23Jul 23, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$203.77Jul 23, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$277.93Jul 23, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$486.97Jul 23, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$100.36Jul 23, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$202.01Jul 23, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$102.28Jul 23, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$173.62Jul 21, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$56.73Jul 20, 21:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $187.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 03:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 14:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.