Virtual-Liberty
0x4d857082a9be5587fb659e71c04111d010d797e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.1K
Realised
$-87.59
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?
41956 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-506.50
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?
30402 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.9K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
18773 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-384.65
- NO
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?
4112 shares @ 24.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-995.09
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
1649 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-139.71
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
1463 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
1000 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-40.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
899 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-88.77
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
899 shares @ 16.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-147.34
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$37.37Mar 26, 05:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$0.00Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?$37.26Mar 26, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?$11.68Mar 26, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?$2.57Mar 26, 05:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?$14.37Mar 26, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?$0.79Mar 26, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?$102.00Mar 26, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?$5.03Mar 25, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?$64.31Mar 25, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?$21.09Mar 25, 20:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $75.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 17:18 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 26, 05:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.